CREA Trims 2026 Home-Sales Forecast as Population Growth Slows
CREA now expects 463,336 home sales in 2026, a 1.4% downgrade blamed on a shrinking population base and supply shortages in Quebec and the East Coast, even as its price forecast holds steady.
The Canadian Real Estate Association trimmed its 2026 home-sales forecast on July 15, 2026, now projecting 463,336 transactions nationally — a 1.4% downgrade from its previous outlook and a slight decline from 2025. CREA attributed the softer outlook to a shrinking population base and ongoing supply shortages, pointing specifically to Quebec and the East Coast as regions where limited inventory is constraining activity.
Even with fewer sales expected, CREA's price outlook barely moved. The association still projects the national average home price to climb 1.1% to $686,710 in 2026, a figure roughly unchanged from its April forecast — suggesting the association sees tighter supply, not weaker demand, as the story shaping this year's market.
Where the market stands now
- The national benchmark price stood at $665,600 in June 2026, down 3.3% from a year earlier.
- National sales rose 0.5% in June, marking a third consecutive monthly gain, though activity remained about 11% below the 10-year average — a reminder that even with sales ticking up, the market has yet to return to more typical historical levels.
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