Ottawa names Pacific Link oil pipeline its first project of national interest

Prime Minister Mark Carney on Thursday designated Pacific Link, a proposed crude oil pipeline from Alberta to the British Columbia coast, as a project of national interest, the first under the Building Canada Act. He made the announcement alongside Alberta Premier Danielle Smith in Fort McMurray.

The designation puts the project on a single, streamlined federal review shepherded by the Major Projects Office, with Ottawa aiming to finalize conditions by Sept. 1, 2027. It does not guarantee the line will be built. Carney said Pacific Link would “materially reduce” Canada's dependence on the United States, which takes 90% of Alberta's oil.

The project in numbers

• Route: about 1,200 kilometres, from Bruderheim, Alta., to Delta, B.C.
• Capacity: about one million barrels a day, mainly aimed at Asian markets
• Estimated cost (Alberta government): $35.2 billion to $43.7 billion
• Builders: federal Crown corporation Trans Mountain Corp., in coordination with Pembina Pipeline
• Indigenous ownership: a minimum 10% stake offered to Indigenous communities
• Pre-construction work: about $4 billion, paid initially by Alberta and Ottawa and later recovered from shippers
• Target in-service date: 2032 or 2033

The economic case

Citing RBC estimates, The Canadian Press reported the pipeline could add about $20 billion a year in export revenue, assuming Western Canadian Select at $60 a barrel, along with $70 billion to $80 billion in construction investment, up to 144,000 jobs at peak and about $100 billion in government revenue by 2060.

The context is a trade fight with Washington. More than 90% of Canada's crude exports go to the U.S. by pipeline, and the only other east-west export line, the expanded Trans Mountain, carries 890,000 barrels a day and is already full, Al Jazeera noted. Carney has set a goal to “double our non-US exports over the next decade.”

The open questions

The hard parts remain. No private company has committed to fund the whole project; Pembina has expressed interest in a 10% stake with an option on up to another 10%. Officials said legal challenges are “probably” ahead. The B.C. government opposes a new pipeline, although Premier David Eby said the province would not challenge it.

First Nations represented by lawyer Merle Alexander said they are not opposed to a pipeline but are concerned about consultation and consider the 10% stake too low. Environmental Defence called the project “reckless,” and NDP Leader Avi Lewis said it is “absolutely not in the national interest.” Conservative energy critic Carol Anstey said “just putting a project on the list is not construction.” Filling the line would also require oil sands growth of a kind no company has undertaken in over a decade.

What it means for you

For most households this is a long-term story, with oil not expected to flow before the early 2030s. Investors holding Canadian energy or pipeline stocks, directly or through broad TSX index funds, already have meaningful exposure to how this plays out. A designation is a step, not a final investment decision, so it is worth being wary of buying any single stock on the headline alone. Diversification across sectors remains the simplest protection against political and regulatory surprises. This article is general information, not personal financial advice.

Related

• Best Canadian pipeline stocks
• Best Canadian energy stocks

More in Commodities

• Factory-gate prices up 14.5% from a year ago as diesel more than doubles
• Oil climbs to highest since mid-September as attacks in Saudi Arabia outweigh Trump's diesel deal
• Factory-gate prices up 13.5% from a year ago as precious metals and fuel surge
• OPEC+ pauses oil output hikes for October as Hormuz disruption limits real supply