Canada's population grows just 0.5%, the slowest pace in percentage terms since 1915/1916

Canada's population boom is over. Statistics Canada estimated Wednesday that the country had 41,798,407 people on July 1, 2026, an increase of 189,425, or 0.5%, from a year earlier. That is the smallest July-to-July gain in absolute terms since 1944/1945 and the lowest growth rate since 1915/1916.

The slowdown is almost entirely the result of changes in international migration, the agency said, and it marks a sharp turn from the 2.8% growth recorded in 2023/2024.

The numbers

• Annual growth: +0.5% in 2025/2026, down from +1.1% in 2024/2025 and a peak of +2.8% in 2023/2024
• Second quarter (April 1 to July 1): +80,343 people (+0.2%), the weakest second quarter since 2020
• Non-permanent residents: down 154,614 over the year to 2,779,774, or 6.7% of the population, the largest annual drop since comparable records began in 1971/1972
• Biggest declines: study permit holders (-140,827) and work-and-study permit holders (-81,163)
• Immigrants admitted in the second quarter: 99,148, down 4.2% from 103,527 a year earlier
• Median age 40.9 years; average age 42.1 years

A revised picture

This release also came with an unusually large revision. Statistics Canada applied two new adjustments to its estimates of non-permanent residents, using border-crossing data to estimate how many permit holders left before their permits expired, and better accounting for people who remain in Canada while waiting for a permit extension. Estimates were revised back to July 1, 2021.

The non-permanent resident population peaked at 2,984,285 on October 1, 2024, or 7.2% of the total. The new figures show the decline continuing, and the asylum-claimant group recorded its first quarterly decrease since early 2022, to 530,090 people.

Why it matters for the economy

Population growth had been a major engine of Canadian GDP, consumer spending and rental demand. With it fading, overall growth will rely more on productivity and investment. The Bank of Canada has said it expects labour-force growth to be close to zero over the next few years. The age profile is shifting too: Canadians 65 and older now make up about 20% of the population, while those aged 0 to 14 account for about 15%.

Regionally, Alberta grew fastest at 1.5% and British Columbia slowest at 0.1%. The Northwest Territories was the only jurisdiction to shrink.

The other side

Slower growth eases some pressures. Fewer new arrivals reduce demand for rental housing, particularly in student-heavy markets, and lower labour-force growth can tighten the job market for those already here. But it also means fewer workers to support an aging population, weaker revenue growth for colleges and landlords, and less automatic growth in spending for retailers and banks.

What it means for households and investors

Renters in cities that relied on international students may see more choice and softer rent increases. Investors in sectors that benefited from rapid population growth, such as apartment REITs and some lenders, may need to reassess growth assumptions. For buyers, slower population growth does not automatically mean lower prices, since interest rates and supply still matter, but it does change the long-run demand picture. This is general information, not personalized advice.

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