GFL Environmental

L'entreprise

GFL Environmental is a diversified environmental-services company and the fourth-largest in North America, focused on solid-waste collection, transfer, disposal and recycling after selling its Environmental Services (liquid waste/soil) segment in 2025.

It operates across Canada and the US with a roll-up model built on acquisitions, now positioned as a more focused solid-waste pure-play.

Les avantages concurrentiels

Moderate, local-density moat similar to peers: landfill ownership, collection route density and municipal contracts create switching costs and pricing power in the markets it dominates.

GFL's moat is narrower than Waste Connections' or Waste Management's because it is younger, more acquisitive and carries more leverage, so its cost of capital and balance sheet are bigger constraints on the flywheel.

Aperçu financier

Période déclarée la plus récente : Q2 FY2026 (ended Jun 30, 2026). Les chiffres reflètent la date de révision — confirmez les chiffres actuels avant d'agir.

Rendement du flux de trésorerie disponible et croissance durable

Rendement du flux de trésorerie disponible : ≈-1.6% (est.)TTM operating cash flow of C$976M less ~C$1.21B capex = FCF of about -C$235M against a C$14.9B market cap ≈ -1.6% (management instead guides to a positive adjusted free cash flow).

Reported free cash flow is negative on a GAAP basis because capex and reinvestment exceed operating cash flow; management instead guides to a positive 'adjusted free cash flow' figure that strips out items and post-divestiture noise.

The sustainable-growth thesis is that the Environmental Services sale de-levered the balance sheet and lets GFL redirect capital to buybacks and higher-return solid-waste tuck-ins — but the conventional cash-conversion has to actually turn positive to validate it.

Voir le classement complet du rendement du flux de trésorerie disponible →

Valorisation et points à surveiller

With no meaningful trailing profit (a net loss) and negative conventional free cash flow, GFL cannot be valued on a P/E or FCF-yield basis in the usual way; the market is pricing it on adjusted EBITDA and the deleveraging story after the 2025 divestiture.

On a strict cash basis it looks expensive/unattractive — TTM operating cash flow of ~C$976M does not cover ~C$1.21B of capex, so conventional FCF is roughly -C$235M against a C$14.9B market cap (a negative yield).

Dividende

Token dividend of ~C$0.07/year, yield ≈0.16%. Capital return is buyback-led following the 2025 divestiture proceeds rather than dividend-driven.

Risques et scénario baissier

• Negative conventional free cash flow and a trailing net loss (Q2 hit by higher foreign-exchange losses); the gap between GAAP FCF and management's 'adjusted' FCF is a key thing to scrutinize.
• Higher leverage than larger peers, integration risk from continued acquisitions, recycled-commodity and fuel cost cyclicality, and reliance on the deleveraging narrative playing out as guided.

Faits récents

Q2 2026 revenue grew ~16% YoY to C$1.95B, but the company reported a net loss of about C$159.8M, with higher foreign-exchange losses cited as a driver.

GFL completed the divestiture of its Environmental Services segment in 2025 and is redeploying proceeds toward debt reduction and share repurchases as a focused solid-waste pure-play.

Verdict

GFL is the most interesting and the riskiest of this group: strong ~16% revenue growth and a cleaner, de-levered post-divestiture structure, but a trailing net loss and negative conventional free cash flow (OCF of ~C$976M against ~C$1.21B capex). The whole thesis hinges on the gap between reported GAAP cash flow and management's 'adjusted free cash flow' closing as the balance sheet heals and reinvestment moderates. Until conventional cash conversion turns durably positive, it is a turnaround/deleveraging story rather than a proven compounder — treat the adjusted-FCF guidance skeptically and watch the actual cash. Publisher analysis, not investment advice.